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At the end of June, the scientific advisory group for The Origins of Novel PathoGens (SAGO), a group of independent experts who were called by the World Health Organization (WHO), published an evaluation of the origins of Covid.
The report came to the conclusion that we do not finally know where the virus caused the pandemic, from “a zoonotic origin with spillover from animals comes to humans than the best -supported hypothesis”.
Sago found no scientific evidence to support “intentional manipulation of the virus in a laboratory and subsequent violation of organic security”.
This has followed a number of reports and research since the early days of pandemic that have drawn similar conclusions: Covid most likely emerged from an infected animal on the Huanan market in Wuhan and was not the result of a laboratory leak.
But there are conspiracy theories about Covid’s origin. And this hinders our ability to prevent the next pandemic.
Attacks on our research
As experts for the creation of viruses, we published a paper examined by experts in Nature Medicine about the origins of Sars-Cov-2, the virus, which caused covid.
Like Sago, we rated several hypotheses on how a new Coronavirus could have created in Wuhan at the end of 2019. We very likely emerged the virus by natural spilling animals – a “zoonose” – caused by the unregulated wildlife trade in China.
Since then, our paper has become a central point of conspiracy theories and political attacks.
The idea of Sars-Cov-2 could have arisen in a laboratory and is not a conspiracy theory in itself. Like many scientists, we have seriously thought about this possibility. And we still do it, although no evidence has arisen to support it.
Security personnel guard outside the Wuhan institute for Virology in Wuhan, China, in February 2021. – Thomas Peter/Reuters/File
However, the public discourse on the origin of pandemic was increasingly shaped by political agendas and conspiratorial stories. Some of them have for our work and disparaged experts who examined this question in a data -driven manner.
A common conspiracy theory claims that high -ranking civil servants have put us under pressure to promote the “preferred” hypothesis of a natural origin and at the same time silence the possibility of a laboratory leak. Some conspiracy theories even suggest that we were rewarded with grant financing.
These stories are wrong. They ignore, dismiss or incorrectly the extensive evidence of the origin of pandemic. Instead, they rely on selective quote from private discussions and a distorted representation of the scientific process and the motivations of the scientists.
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What do the evidence tell us?
In the five years since our natural medicine paper, there has been an extensive part of new evidence that deepened our understanding of how Sars-Cov-2 most likely came about by a natural spillover.
At the beginning of 2020, the case for a zoonotic origin was already convincing. The much -discussed characteristics of the virus are located in related corona viruses and have signatures of natural evolution. The genome of Sars-Cov-2 showed no signs of laboratoryanipulation.
The billions of wildlife trade and fur in China in China regularly relocates high-risk animals, which are often infected with viruses, to dense urban centers.
It is believed that Sars-Cov-1, the virus responsible for the SARS outbreak, appeared in the Chinese province of Guangdong in 2002.
Similarly, detailed analyzes of epidemiological data show the earliest known Covid cases that were teamed up in the Huanan Live-Animal market in Wuhan in the Huanan Live-Live-Live-Live-Live-Animal market in Wuhan.
On April 15, 2020, workers unloaded in a shop in a shop on the Wuhan Baishazhou market. – Hector Retamal/AFP/Getty Images/File
Several independent data sources, including early hospital stays, excess pneumonia, antibody studies and infections between the health care staff, point out that Covid is for the first time in the district in which the market is located.
In a study of 2022, we and other experts showed that environmental samples that are positive for SARS-COV-2 clusters in the section of the market on which wild animals were sold.
In a follow-up study of 2024 we showed the same samples that contained the genetic material of susceptible animals-intentions of raccoon dogs and civila-on cages, carts and other surfaces that were used to keep them and transport them.
This does not prove that infected animals were the source. But exactly what we would expect when the market went over the virus for the first time. And it contradicts what is expected from a laboratory leak.
These and all other independent evidence indicate the Huanan market as the early epicenter of Covid pandemic.
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Disability of the willingness for the next pandemic
Speculations and conspiracy theories about the origin of Covid have undermined trust in science. The incorrect balance between laboratory leaks and zoonotic theories assigned by some commentators added fuel to the conspiracy fire.
This anti-science agenda, some of which comes from the theories of the Covid Origin conspiracy, is used to justify profound cuts for the financing of biomedical research, public health and global help. These areas are essential for pandemic preparation.
In the United States, this has resulted in considerable cuts in the US centers for the control of the disease and the National Institutes of Health, the closure of the US Agency for International Development and the withdrawal of the WHO.
The undermining of trust in science and public health facilities also hinders the development and admission of life-saving vaccines and other medical interventions. This leaves us susceptible to future pandemics.
The reinforcement of conspiracy theories about the origin of Covid has promoted a dangerously incorrect understanding of the pandemic risk. The idea that a researcher has discovered or developed a pandemia virus accidentally triggered infected and unknowingly triggered a global outbreak (precisely in the type of environment in which natural spillovers occur) defies the logic. It also affects the considerable risk of wildlife trade.
In contrast, the evidence-based conclusion began that the covid pandemic was most likely started with a virus that jumped from animals to people, the very real risk that we are increasingly exposed. This is how pandemics begin and it will happen again. But we disassemble our ability to stop or prepare it.
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