by The forecastics will lose some of their sharpest eyes in the sky just a few months before the climax of the Atlantic Hurricane season if the Ministry of Defense holds an important source of satellite data about cybersecurity concerns.
The data comes from microwave sensors that are connected to three aging satellites that are operated for both military and civilian purposes. Data from the sensors are of crucial importance for hurricane forecastics, as they enable them to look through cloud layers and in the middle of a storm, where rain and thunderstorms develop at night. The sensors do not rely on visible light.
The loss of the data – at a time when the National Weather service publishes fewer weather balloons and the agency is missing due to budget cuts shortly before meteorologists – it becomes more likely that prognostics will miss the most important developments in a hurricane, several hurricane experts said. These changes help meteorologists to determine which level of threat is a storm and therefore the preparation of emergency managers. Microwave data offer some of the earliest signs that continuing winds strengthen in a storm.
“It is really the instrument that enables us to look under the bonnet. There is definitely a significant loss. There is no doubt that hurricane forecasts are deteriorated,” said Brian McNoldy, a Hurricane researcher and senior research associate at the Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science of Miami. “You can see when an eye wall forms in a tropical storm and whether it reinforces itself – or quickly intensifies.”
The researchers believe that a quick intensification in tropical storms is becoming more and more likely when the oceans warm up due to the climate change caused by humans.
The three satellites are operated for both military and civilian purposes by the defense meteorological satellite program, a joint effort of the national ocean and atmospheric management and the Ministry of Defense.
While hurricane experts said they were concerned about the loss of the tool, Kim Doster, communications director of Noaa, played down the effects of the decision on the forecast of the hurricane by the national weather service.
In an e -mail, Doster said that the military’s microwave data is “a single data record in a robust suite of hurricane forecast and modeling tools in the NWS portfolio.”
According to the doster, these models contain data from geostationary satellites – another system that constantly observes the earth from about 22,300 miles away and offers a viewpoint that appears firmly because the satellites synchronize with the earth’s earth.
They also take measurements on hurricane hunter aircraft missions, buoys, weather balloons, land-based radar and from other polarorbiting satellites, including the common polar satellite system from NOAA, of which they said that they “provide the richest and most accurate satellite weather observations.”
A US -Space Force officer said the satellites and their instruments in question were functional and the data is sent directly to Weather satellite crossing connections via the DOD. Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center of the Marine made the decision to end this data and to share it publicly, said the official.
Visible and infrared images show the hurricane Erick when he strengthened on June 18 from a storm of category 2 (CIMSS). (Cimss)
The navy did not immediately answer a request for comment.
At the beginning of this week, a department of the Navy announced the researchers that she would stop the data on or before June 30th, and some researchers received an email from the navy of the navy of the navy fleet meteorology and oceanography center.
“The operating system cannot be updated, a cyber security problem issues and introduces the risk of DOD networks,” says the e -mail, which was checked by NBC News.
McNoldy estimated that the move will reduce the amount of microwave data that was available to the forecasts in two halves.
These microwave data are also used by snow and ice scientists to pursue the extent of the polar sea ice, which helps scientists to understand long-term climate trends. Meereis forms from frozen sea water. It grows in cover in the winter months and usually melts in warmer seasons. Sea ice cream reflects sunlight back into space, which cools down the planet. This makes it an important metric to pursue over time. The extent of the summer of the Arctic sea ice is lower due to the global warming.
Walt Meier, a senior research scientist in the National Snow and Ice Data Center, said his program had learned about the decision of the Navy at the beginning of this week.
Meier said the satellites and sensors are about 16 years old. The researchers have prepared that they will fail at some point, but they did not expect the military to deduct the data with little warning, he said.
Meier said that the National Snow and Ice Data Center has rely on the military satellites for sea ice cover data since 1987, but will adapt its systems to similar microwave data from a Japanese satellite called AMSR-2.
“It could certainly take a few weeks before we bring this data into our system,” said Meier. “I don’t think it will undermine our Sea ice climate data records in relation to trust in the seaside ice cream, but it will be more difficult.”
The polarorbiting satellites, which are part of the meteorological satellite program for defense, provide a temporary cover of hurricane -prone areas.
In a north-south orientation, the satellites typically move into a north-south orientation in a relatively low orbit, said Meier. The microwave sensors scan over a narrow earth swath, which Meier appreciated at about 1,500 miles.
While the earth is rotating, these polarorbiting satellites can capture images that helps the researchers to determine the structure and possible intensity of a storm if it is on the way.
“It is often only through luck, you get a really nice pass through a hurricane,” said McNoldy, adding that the change reduces the geographical area, which is covered by microwave scans and the frequency of scans of a certain storm.
Andy Hazelton, a hurricane and deputy scientist of the Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies, said that the microwave data is used in some hurricane models and also by forecasters who can access almost real-time visualizations of the data.
According to Hazelton, forecasting always searches for visual signatures in microwave data, which often provide the first evidence that a storm quickly reinforces and builds up the strength.
The National Hurricane Center defines a quick intensification as an increase in the continued winds in a tropical storm in a tropical storm within 24 hours. The loss of the microwave data is now particularly important because scientists have observed an increase in fast intensification in recent years, which has increased a trend that is partly involved by climate change.
In a study of 2023, the Journal Scientific Reports was published that tropical vertebral towers in the Atlantic from 2001 to 2020 were subjected to a quick intensification than 1971 to 1990. Before the previous year, Hurricane Milton was strengthened from a tropical storm to a hurricane in category 5 in just 36 hours. Part of this increase took place overnight when other satellite instruments offer less information.
Hurricane Milton, a category 5 storm at the time of this photo, was shown on October 8, 2024 in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of the Yucatan peninsula, as can be seen from the international space station. (Nasa / Getty Images)
The trend is particularly dangerous if a storm like hurricane Idalia intensifies shortly before the coast has hit.
“We have certainly seen many cases of fast intensification before landing in recent years. That is the kind of things that they really don’t want to miss,” said McNoldy, adding that microwave data is “excellent in giving the important additional 12 hours of lead time to see the inner core changes”.
Brian Lamarre, the former meteorologist at the weather forecast of the National Weather Service in Tampa Bay, said the data was also useful to hold the effects on the floods because a hurricane comes ashore.
“This scan can help to predict where the heavier rainfall and precipitation rates can be,” said Lamarre. “This data is of crucial importance for public security.”
The hurricane season begins on June 1st and ends on November 30th. As a rule, it begins to reach its peak in late summer and early autumn. Noaa forecasts have predicted a more busy hurricane season 2025 than typical with six to ten hurricanes.
This article was originally published on nbcnews.com
