by In England and Wales, heated deaths can rise to 50 times over the next 50 years, since an aging population is affected by the dangerous climate change, a study warns.
The warning comes when parts of Great Britain are exposed to a third heat wave in a month and the temperatures above 30 ° C are promoted, which is extremely warm when the “silent murderer” is increasing when the climate change deteriorates.
Experts are demanding the efforts to adapt houses and cities to the threats from extreme heat, with measures from green roofs and shady urban forests to better building ventilation, air conditioning and more support for people in need of protection.
Scientists have already estimated that the first heat wave was 100 times more likely due to climate change at the end of June, and the second was 2-4 ° C hotter and tripled in 12 European cities, including London due to global warming.
Now a new study by scientists at the University College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine are warning in the thousands or even tens of thousands in the coming decades.
The annual number of deaths from heat could increase from today’s baseline from 634 to 10,317 in the 2050s and 34.027 in the 2070s under a worst-case scenario with 4.3 ° C of heating and minimal efforts to adapt to rising temperatures.
Even under the most optimistic scenario of the temperature, the temperature increases to 1.6 ° C of warming from pre-industrial level and essential efforts to adapt to the changing climate, the annual number of deaths is expected to increase in the 2050s per year and up to 4,592 per year in the 2070s.
For comparison: In the record festival of hot summer of 2022, 2,985 deaths in connection with heat in connection with excess heat etwas, which could become a “new normal” in the 2050s, said the researchers say.
The senior author Dr. Clare Heaviside from the UCL said that research had painted a “sober image” of the consequences of climate change.
“In the next 50 years, the health effects of a heating climate will be significant.
“We can mitigate their severity by reducing the greenhouse gas emissions and carefully planned adjustments, but we have to start now.”
The research published in Journal Plos analyzed the effects of 15 scenarios of different climate change, efforts to adapt to heat, regional climatic differences, aging population groups and even the potential effects of power failures to project future warmth.
The study warned that the population of England and Wales will probably age significantly over the next 50 years, which makes the risk worse because older people are more susceptible to the health effects of extreme heat.
It is also found that in the 2060s there could be between 21 and 32 additional hot days in the 2060s with the lowest greenhouse gas emissions and climate warming as well as up to 64 to 73.
If you take steps to adapt houses and cities with passive cooling measures such as shutters, shades and cool roofs – those who are paler to reflect on the sun’s rays or the air conditioning – or the air conditioning – the number of deaths can become less effective due to heat.
The air conditioning is currently not used in Great Britain, but probably with warmer summer – what could protect those who are most susceptible to warmth.
However, the use of air conditioning systems can be caused and disturbed by power failures, which may increase the number of deaths in a heat wave and makes cities hotter and contributes to emissions, warned the study.
The researchers added problems with the affordability of air conditioning for some people for some people, the researchers added.
Dr. Rebecca Cole from LSHTM said: “How we as a society will adapt to our changing climate will affect people’s well -being.
“Our research shows how increasingly the deaths in connection with heat-related temperatures are not only a result of rising temperatures and you can also attribute how we build our cities, take care of endangered population groups and address social inequality.
“Concerted adaptation strategies are required that have gone far beyond that in the past 30 years.”
Dr. Akshay Deoras from the University of Reading said: “When flooding and storms are the loud alarms of climate change, extreme warmth is silent killers.
“It is disproportionately fatal and often remains unnoticed until it is too late. This warning feels more urgent than ever with another heat wave that settles on Great Britain.”
He said that it was crucial to cut greenhouse gases and strengthen the adjustment efforts to strengthen the study on passive measures such as shutters, shades and cool roofs that work even when the strength is.
And Dave Raval, director of the National Warm Homes Council, the small companies that deliver energy improvements for Heimergie, asked the government to expand its upcoming warm Homes plan for energy efficiency -upgrades to a strategy that protects people all year round.
The Council would like to upgrade the ministers fund and scaling ventilation systems, ensure that the roof insulation is well installed and protected to ensure its effectiveness and to treat the overheating indoors as a serious risk of public health.
He warned: “This is a health crisis that is hidden in sight.
“We have to take it seriously to keep houses safe in summer, not only warm in winter.
“Older people, people with health conditions and families in poorly insulated houses are exposed to a real risk.
“As we rightly invest in winter, we urgently need a cool housing to protect people in summer.”
